Kp · last 12h observed, next 12h forecast
Solar wind · Bz & speed, last 12h observed
Real-time solar wind (Bz, speed) from the L1 spacecraft — covers only the past ~12h, since it can't be forecast that far out. A sustained southward Bz (red, below the dashed −10 nT line) with rising speed is often the first sign something is starting, well before the next Kp update reflects it.
Rough reading, not a Kp conversion — speed and Bz don't translate to Kp on their own; the real number combines both (plus density) over time, and the Kp chart above is the only official value. As context, chasers commonly use: speed <450 km/s typical, 450–600 elevated, 600–800 high-speed stream, 800+ exceptional/CME-class; Bz 0 to −5 nT weak, −5 to −10 moderate, below −10 nT (marked on the chart) the classic storm trigger, below −20 nT severe. Sustained −10 nT+ alongside 500+ km/s is the classic "worth checking" combination — but treat it as a nudge to watch the Kp chart, not a verdict on its own.
NOAA aurora oval · live imagery
Hotlinked directly from NOAA SWPC — not regenerated or reinterpreted here, so it's exactly what forecasters see. Updated every 5 minutes, valid ~30–45 minutes ahead.
Each image prints its own UTC timestamp — the label above compares that against this dashboard's own refresh time, in both UTC and Eastern, so you can tell at a glance whether the two are in sync. Some aurora chasers consider this graphic optimistic compared to NOAA's interactive nowcast tool, so treat it as a rough visual, not a precise reading.
Planetary Kp forecast · Eastern time
Where the storm lands · by location
Field-confirmed benchmarks: two observed nights anchor what these tiers mean in reality. Algonquin, Sept 30–Oct 1 2025 (Kp 4.67, ~2–4am ET) — naked-eye floor, the faintest display still worth watching — landed 0.33 Kp above the above-horizon threshold. Lake George, Oct 10–11 2024 (Kp 7.33, the May-2024-class G4 storm) — full overhead display — landed 0.5 Kp above the overhead threshold.
Tonight, hour by hour
27-day outlook · primed windows
Long-range recurrence forecast (repeating coronal-hole streams). It caps around Kp 5–6 and can't see CMEs, so it never predicts the big Kp 8–9 storms. Read a highlighted day as a primed window — a stretch when an incoming CME would be amplified — not as an alert on its own.
Handy maps